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VOA常速20080312 普京与总统接班人梅德韦杰夫关系

Medvedev-Putin Relationship May Guide Future Russian Policy

普京与总统接班人梅德韦杰夫关系

 



Dmitri Medvedev, 42, officially becomes president of Russia on May 7. He will succeed Vladimir Putin, who has led the country for eight years. But Mr. Putin will not leave the political scene - Mr. Medvedev has promised to name him prime minister.

 

42岁的梅德韦杰夫将在5月7日接替领导俄罗斯8年的普京正式成为俄罗斯总统。但是,普京将不会离开政治舞台。梅德韦杰夫已答应任命普京为总理。

Analysts say little is known about Mr. Medvedev, other than what is contained in his official biography. What is known is that he owes his political career to Mr. Putin. They met 17 years ago when both worked for the mayor of St. Petersburg, Anatoly Sobchak.

 

分析家认为,除了梅德韦杰夫的官方传记之外,人们对他几乎不了解;人们所了解的是,他的政治生涯完全是依靠普京的提拔。两人17年前在他们为圣彼得堡市长索布恰克工作时就开始结识。

By 1999, Mr. Putin was named prime minister, then acting president, after Boris Yeltsin resigned. He was elected president of Russia in 2000, and he invited Mr. Medvedev to work for him in Moscow. Mr. Medvedev rose to chief of staff and was also made chairman of the state gas monopoly, Gazprom. He currently holds the post of first deputy prime minister.

 

到1999年,普京被任命为总理,后来叶利钦辞职后又被任命为代理总统。2000年,普京被选为俄罗斯总统后邀请梅德韦杰夫到莫斯科为他工作。梅德韦杰夫升任总统办公厅主任,并且被任命为国有天然气垄断企业--俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的主席。梅德韦杰夫现任第一副总理职务。

Late last year, Mr. Putin chose Mr. Medvedev as his successor, and he easily won the presidential election on March 2, getting more than 70 percent of the vote. Candidate Medvedev promised to name Vladimir Putin prime minister.

 

去年年底,普京挑选梅德韦杰夫为他的接班人。梅德韦杰夫在3月2号轻松赢得总统选举,得到超过70%的选票。候选人梅德韦杰夫承诺将任命普京为总理。

During a news conference February 28, President Bush responded to a statement that U.S. Senators Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton - running for the democratic presidential nomination - said they did not know a great deal about Mr. Medvedev.

 

在2月28号的一个记者会上,美国总统布什回应了竞选民主党总统候选人提名的参议员奥巴马和克林顿的声明。在那个声明里,奥巴马和克林顿说,他们对梅德韦杰夫了解不多。

"I do not know much about Medvedev either. And what will be interesting to see is who represents Russia at the G8, for example. It will be interesting to see - it will help, I think, give some insight as to how Russia intends to conduct foreign policy after Vladimir Putin's presidency," said Mr. Bush.

 

布什说:“我对梅德韦杰夫也了解不多。有趣的是,比方说,谁代表俄罗斯参加八国峰会。我想,这将有助人们多少了解在普京卸任俄罗斯总统后俄罗斯将打算怎样执行对外政策。”

But analysts say the Russian constitution is clear as to who will be in charge of foreign relations. It says the Russian president will govern the foreign policy of the country and represent Russia on the world stage.

 

但是,分析家认为,俄罗斯宪法明文规定了谁负责对外关系。根据俄罗斯宪法,总统将管理国家的对外政策,并且在国际舞台上代表俄罗斯。

Experts say a more important question is whether Dmitri Medvedev, who owes so much to outgoing President Putin, will be his own man or whether he will be "Putin's puppet."

 

专家认为,一个更为重要的问题是,几乎完全靠即将卸任的普京提拔上来的梅德韦杰夫是否能独立行事,还是会成为“普京的傀儡”。

Jason Lyall is a Russia expert at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

 

普林斯顿大学伍德罗.威尔逊公共和国际事务学院的俄罗斯问题专家莱尔说:

"I do not think we actually know the answer to this question right now. Medvedev is in some ways just a cipher - we do not know that much about him. He is portrayed as Putin's man, but he is just been recorded as saying no, the power runs through the presidency," said Lyall. "And so you might see in the beginning that Putin is running the show. But my hunch is that Medvedev is going to step in, he is going to develop his own power base and this may get into a real interesting situation where there are dual power centers in Russia. And I honestly do not know how this is going to play out. I do not think anybody knows yet how this is going to play out. It is going to hinge on the relationship between these two men. In the beginning, I think Putin is going to be calling the shots. Two years down the road - I just do not know."

 

“我认为现在我们实际上还不知道这个问题的答案。梅德韦杰夫在某种意义上还是个谜。虽然他被描绘成普京的人,但有记录显示他说不是这样的。权力要由总统授权。一开始的时候,人们可能看到是普京在主导局面。“但是我感觉,梅德韦杰夫将进行干预。他会发展自己的权力基础。这可能会造成俄罗斯出现两个权力核心的一个非常有意思的局面。老实说,我不知道这会怎样发展下去。我也不认为会有人知道今后局势的发展。这要看两人的关系了。一开始,我想普京会起决定作用。两年后的情况,我就不知道了。”

Michael McFaul from Stanford University, says it is difficult to say whether there will be friction between the two men.

 

斯坦福大学的麦克福尔认为,普京和梅德韦杰夫两人是否会产生矛盾还很难说。

"I am nervous about predicting tension between the two men who have worked together for almost two decades," said McFaul. "And yet, almost by definition, from the set-up of the relationship, moving forward, Medvedev gradually will have to become his own leader, his own president. And for him to just act as a puppet to the prime minister, I think over time that will be difficult to sustain. I am not of the view that some people express that you already see the signs of tension and that Medvedev is going to be some break with the Putin era. I see much more continuity going forward."

 

麦克福尔说:“普京和梅德韦杰夫两人一起合作了快20年。要估计他们之间产生矛盾,我觉得没底。但是几乎可以肯定,从两人关系开始建立、向前发展,梅德韦杰夫慢慢会成为独立的领导人,独立的总统。让梅德韦杰夫只做个总理的傀儡,我想这个局面很难维持。有些人表示矛盾迹象已经显现,而且梅德韦杰夫会同普京时代有某种切割。我并不这么认为。我认为将会有更多的连续性。”

But Marshal Goldman from Harvard University, says there could be tensions between the two men.

 

但是哈佛大学的戈德曼认为,两人关系可能会产生紧张。

"Because once you have got power in Russia, one of the things we have seen is that power after awhile goes to your head and you resent being told what to do even if you're being told by what was your mentor," said Goldman. "There certainly should be a honeymoon in the early stages because Medvedev has been very close to Putin. Putin has brought him alone quite a bit and it may very well be that they can divide up responsibilities. But I think it is going to be hard for Putin to give up all the controls that he had."

 

戈德曼说:“我们了解的一点是,因为你一旦在俄罗斯拥有了权力,过一段时间权力会变成主导你的意识。你就会讨厌被别人牵著走,尽管那个为你指路的人是你原来的导师。因为梅德韦杰夫和普京的关系非常亲密,开始当然会有一段蜜月期。过去普京已经引导他走了很长一段路,当然有可能两人会各自掌控一部分责任。但是我认为,对于普京而言,放弃他已有的所有控制权,这很难做到。”

In the long run, experts say two centers of power in Russia, some call it a co-presidency, are unsustainable. They say either the Russian constitution must be changed to give more powers to the prime minister or the political structure will remain the same with the president, in this case Dmitri Medvedev, holding the upper hand.

 

从长远看,专家认为俄罗斯不会维持两个权力核心或是有些人称作的联合总统的局面。他们认为,要么必须修改俄罗斯宪法,给总理更多权力,要么保持政治结构不变,让总统、也就是梅德韦杰夫拥有更高权威。
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