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财富增长 西方不亮东方亮

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The U.S. is losing its market share of global millionaires.

The population of millionaires grew five times as fast in emerging markets as it did in the U.S. last year, according to a survey released Tuesday. That was the largest divergence between the U.S. and the big emerging markets since the comparisons were first published in 2003.

The number of millionaires in Brazil, Russia, India and China jumped 19% in 2007, compared with growth of 3.7% in the U.S., its slowest growth since 2002, according to the World Wealth Report, produced by Merrill Lynch & Co. and Capgemini.

The U.S. still dominates the millionaire economy world-wide. It has more than three million financial millionaires, defined as those with investable assets of $1 million or more. That's up 100,000 from 2006.

Yet emerging markets captured the bulk of the millionaire growth last year, with Brazil, China, India and Russia adding 133,000 new millionaires, for an 817,000 total. India's millionaire population grew 23% last year, the fastest in the world.

After climbing for years, America's market share of the world's millionaires declined slightly, to 30% in 2007 from 31% in 2006. Its share of millionaire wealth fell to 29% in 2007 from 31% in 2006, and is expected to fall further in the next five years, according to the report. Europe's market share of millionaires has fallen even faster in recent years, to 31% in 2007 from 36% in 2002.

Meanwhile, the millionaire market share for India, Brazil, Russia and China has increased to 8% from 6% in the past five years.

The numbers point to an economic reality: Tomorrow's rich are more likely to come from the East than the West.

The surge in oil and commodity prices, the shift in financial flows to faster-growing emerging markets, the higher savings rates abroad and the decline in the dollar have all fueled a boom in new millionaires and billionaires in countries once known for their extreme poverty.

At the same time, America's wealth-creation machine is sputtering because of the financial crisis, debt crunch and decline in real-estate prices.

While the market share of millionaires may seem trivial, it has ramifications for the global economy.

The increasingly Eastern face of wealth could reshape investment and spending in the U.S., as well as philanthropy and entrepreneurship. The more than $40 trillion held by the world's millionaires will move increasingly outside the U.S., since the new millionaires prefer to invest in their own countries. Investments by the world's millionaires in North America are expected to decline to 39% of all investments in 2009 from 42% in 2007, the report said.

The shift is also likely to accelerate economic inequality world-wide, since the fastest growth in millionaires and billionaires is occurring in countries with an even larger gap between rich and poor than in the U.S.

According to the World Wealth Report, wealth is becoming concentrated increasingly among the rich -- especially the superrich. The population of the superrich, or those with $30 million or more in investable assets, increased 8.8% last year globally, while their fortunes grew by a disproportionate 14.5%.

Indians already hold four of the top eight slots on the Forbes billionaire list, while Mexico's Carlos Slim has surpassed Bill Gates to claim the No. 2 spot. Warren Buffett is No. 1; Mr. Gates is No. 3.

India was the biggest overall winner last year. Its population of millionaires surged by 23%, up slightly from a 21% rise in 2006. China saw growth of 21%, followed by Brazil with 19% and Russia with 14%.

The main drivers for wealth creation are gross-domestic-product growth, financial-market performance and liquidity. The flood of money pouring into overseas stock markets has created a boom in initial public offerings and stock that can be used for mergers.

That has fueled a rise in what private bankers call 'liquidity events,' where a company owner or executive can cash in his holdings to become a millionaire or billionaire.

'Financial markets are deepening in these countries, and that is allowing many entrepreneurs to capitalize their businesses,' said Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff.

The wealth shift is also redrawing the competitive map for the luxury economy and the vast array of companies that sell to the rich.

Sotheby's estimates that Russian buyers of Impressionist and Modern art at its February auction in London accounted for 15% of sales, compared with 9% in 2007.

Mega-yacht makers, once devoted largely to the U.S. and Europe, are now doing a brisk business in Russia, India and Brazil. Burgess, the yacht-brokerage firm, said that emerging markets will probably account for half of its business in five years, compared with about a third today.

'When it comes to the very big boats, India is the next Russia,' says Jonathan Beckett, chief executive of Burgess.

Gulfstream, the private-jet maker, is deriving an increasing share of its growth from outside the U.S. For the first time in the company's 49-year history, orders for jets from North American buyers in 2007 were eclipsed by overseas buyers, even though North American orders were up 30%, a spokesman said.

In the first quarter of 2008, orders from overseas are outpacing North America by 56% to 44%.

Many of the new buyers are 'unaccustomed to waiting,' says Robert Baugniet, spokesman for Gulfstream, a subsidiary of General Dynamics Corp. 'When somebody hears the G550 they ordered won't be delivered until the first quarter of 2013, they rattle their briefcase full of cash and don't understand why they have to wait.'

在全球百万富翁名单上,美国人的比例正在走下坡路。

据周二公布的一份研究报告显示,去年新兴市场百万富翁人数的增幅是美国的五倍。这是自2003年首次对美国和主要新兴市场进行比较以来,二者增速差距最大的一次。

据美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co.)和Capgemini公布的《世界财富报告》(World Wealth Report)显示,2007年巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国的百万富翁总数增加了19%,相比之下美国的增幅只有3.7%,是2002年以来增幅最小的一年。

美国在全球百万富翁总数中仍占有主导地位。美国有300多万个金融百万富翁(可投资资产不低于100万美元),较2006年增加了10万人。

尽管如此,去年百万富翁的增多有很大一部分来自新兴市场,其中巴西、中国、印度和俄罗斯共新增13.3万,总数达到81.7万人。去年印度的百万富翁增加了23%,增幅居全球之冠。

在持续数年的上升之后,美国在全球百万富翁中的占比从2006年的31%小幅降到2007年的30%。据该报告称,美国在百万富翁总资产中所占比例从2006年的31%降至2007年的29%,预计未来5年中还会进一步下降。近几年来欧洲在全球百万富翁中占比萎缩得更快,从2002年的36%降至2007年的31%。

与此同时,印度、巴西、俄罗斯和中国的百万富翁占比在过去5年中从6%上升到8%。

百万富翁的数字凸现出了经济上的现实情况:明天的富翁更有可能来自东方、而非西方。

石油和大宗商品价格的飙升、资金转而流向增长更快的新兴市场、海外更高的储蓄率,以及美元走软等诸多因素都推动了在这些曾因极度贫困而知名的国家中百万富翁和亿万富翁人数的增加。

而与此同时,美国的财富制造机器却因金融危机、信贷紧缩和房地产价格下跌而运转艰难。

虽然百万富翁的构成比例看似无足轻重,但却能给全球经济带来衍生影响。

百万富翁中东方面孔的日渐增多可能会重塑美国的投资和支出,对慈善业和企业界亦是如此。全球百万富翁手中持有的40多万亿美元的资产将越来越多地流出美国,因为新晋百万富翁更喜欢在本国进行投资。该报告预计,2009年时,全球百万富翁在北美的投资占全球总投资的比例将从2007年的42%下降至39%。

这种趋势还可能会加速全球范围内的经济不平等,因为百万富翁和亿万富翁增长最快的国家也正是那些贫富差距甚于美国的国家。

据《世界财富报告》称,财富越来越多地集中到富人、特别是超级富豪手中。去年世界上可投资资产不低于3,000万美元的超级富豪人数增加了8.8%,而其所持资产的增幅却达到了不成比例的14.5%。

在《福布斯》亿万富翁榜上,印度人占据了前八位中的四个,墨西哥的卡洛斯•斯利姆(Carlos Slim)超过比尔•盖茨(Bill Gates)成为全球第二富豪。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)位居第一,盖茨则排名第三。

总体来看,印度是去年的大赢家。该国百万富翁人数增加了23%,略高于2006年的21%。中国百万富翁人数增加了21%,巴西和俄罗斯分别增加了19%和14%。

财富创造的主要驱动力是国内生产总值(GDP)的增长、金融市场的表现和流动性。涌入海外股市的资金使首次公开募股(IPO)和可用于并购的股票出现了快速增长。

这刺激了私人银行家所说的“流动性事件”的增多,一家公司的所有者或是管理者能将股份兑现,进而一跃成为百万富翁甚至亿万富翁。

哈佛大学的经济学家肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说,这些国家的金融市场正在深化,使得很多企业家能够将旗下业务上市变现。

全球财富的转移也使奢侈品经济以及大量面向富人的公司的竞争格局发生了变化。

苏富比拍卖公司(Sotheby's)估计,在2月份伦敦举行的拍卖中,拍得印象派和现代艺术品的俄罗斯买家掏的钱占总销售额的比重为15%,而相比之下,2007年时这一比例为9%。

巨型游艇制造商曾经主要面向美国和欧洲客户,如今它们在俄罗斯、印度和巴西的业务也很繁忙。游艇经纪公司Burgess表示,新兴市场可能会在未来5年内占到该公司业务的一半,目前只有三分之一。

Burgess首席执行长乔纳森•贝克特(Jonathan Beckett)说,说到超级游艇,印度将是下一个俄罗斯。

隶属于General Dynamics Corp.的私人喷气式飞机制造商Gulfstream的业务增长正越来越多地来自美国以外的国家。该司发言人表示,尽管2007年北美的喷气机订单增加了30%,但还是输给了海外订单,这在公司49年的历史中是头一次。

2008年第一季度,海外订单增幅56%,超过了北美订单44%的增幅。

Gulfstream的发言人罗伯特•巴格涅特(Robert Baugniet)说,很多新增的买家都“不习惯等待”,当有人听说他们订购的G550要到2013年第一季度才能交货时,他们就会把装满现金的手提箱摇得格格作响,不明白为什么要等。
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