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救助AIG新计划 银行成最大赢家

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New AIG Rescue Is Bank Blessing

2008年11月12日

Banks in the U.S. and abroad are among the biggest winners in the federal government's revamped $150 billion bailout of American International Group Inc.

Many banks that previously bought protection from the insurer on securities backed by now-troubled mortgage assets stand to recoup the bulk of their investments under a plan by AIG and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to buy around $70 billion of those securities via a new company. These securities are collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime-mortgage bonds, commercial-mortgage loans and other assets.

Banks in the U.S., Europe and Canada bought credit-default swaps on these securities from AIG, which in turn promised to compensate them if the securities defaulted. Defaults haven't been a major problem, but the market values of these CDOs fell sharply over the past year or so.

That enabled the banks to pry roughly $35 billion in collateral from AIG as a result of those declines and downgrades in AIG's own credit ratings. The banks that have sought and received collateral from AIG include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank AG and others.

Throughout its AIG rescue efforts during the past two months, the government has had the banks in its sights; it made its initial bailout of AIG in part to avoid potential bank losses that might have threatened the broader financial system.

Under the plan announced Monday, the banks will get to keep the collateral they received from AIG, much of which came when the government made funds available to AIG in September. The banks also will sell the CDOs to the new facility at market prices averaging 50 cents on the dollar. The banks that participate will be compensated for the securities' full, or par, value in exchange for allowing AIG to unwind the credit-default swaps it wrote.

'It's like a home run for some of the banks,' says Carlos Mendez, a senior managing director at ICP Capital, a fixed-income investment firm in New York. 'They bought insurance from a company that ran into trouble and still managed to get all, or most, of their money back.'

The contract cancellations will free the insurer from additional collateral calls on those swaps, which also have been responsible for billions of dollars in write-downs that AIG has logged in recent quarters. The plan is analogous to an insurer buying a house it provided fire insurance on, negating the need for an insurance policy on the home.

A person familiar with the government's rescue plan says it wasn't specifically designed to benefit individual banks at the expense of U.S. taxpayers and AIG, which will end up bearing the risk of the CDOs. However, officials wanted to give banks sufficient incentives to sell the securities so that AIG could cancel the swaps.

Officials also wanted to directly address the parts of AIG's business that were causing the most financial pain to the company. 'The continuing deterioration in value of the CDOs . . . meant that AIG had to post more and more collateral each day, which was a drain on their resources and potentially a threat to their solvency,' says Leslie Rahl, president of Capital Market Risk Advisors, a risk consultancy in New York.

The New York Fed will provide as much as $30 billion to buy the multisector CDOs, and AIG will contribute $5 billion.

AIG also will bear the risk for the first $5 billion of losses among the securities purchased. If the assets increase in value or pay off over time, the Fed and AIG will share the benefits, with most of the upside going to taxpayers.

The Fed is leading the negotiations, and most of AIG's counterparties have been contacted. If some banks choose not to cancel the swap contracts, they would still bear the risk that AIG mightn't be able to meet its obligations down the road. But most of AIG's swap counterparties on the multisector CDOs are expected to sell their securities to the new facility and cancel the credit-default-swap contracts.

Even with this deal, AIG will still bear considerable risk under its CDS portfolio, because it continues to hold contracts that protect about $300 billion in securities backed by other types of assets, such as corporate loans. The swaps on the multisector CDOs, however, had been responsible for most of the $40 billion in collateral that AIG had posted on all its swaps through Nov. 5.

Serena Ng / Liam Pleven

救助AIG新计划 银行成最大赢家

国政府规模1,500亿美元的美国国际集团(American International Group Inc., AIG)新救助计划最大的赢家就是美国及海外的银行。

AIG和纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)计划通过一家新公司购买抵押资产出现问题的债权抵押证券(CDO),价值约为700亿美元。根据这一计划,此前从AIG为这类证券购买了保险的许多银行将得以拿回自己的大部分投资。CDO以次级抵押贷款债券、商业抵押贷款证券和其他资产作为担保。

美国、欧洲和加拿大的银行在AIG为此类证券购买了信贷违约掉期,AIG承诺在这些证券出现违约的情况下为这些银行提供赔付。违约还不是很严重的问题,但这类CDO的市值在过去一年左右的时间里急剧缩水。

由于CDO价值缩水,加上AIG自身的信贷评级被下调,这些银行要求AIG提交了大约350亿美元的质押物。要求及收到AIG质押物的银行包括高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)、美林(Merrill Lynch & Co.)、瑞士银行(UBS AG)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank Ag)及其他一些银行。

过去两个月对AIG展开救助的过程中,美国政府也考虑到了银行;政府最初决定救助AIG的部分原因就是为了避免可能危及更大范围的银行体系的潜在银行亏损。

按照周一宣布的计划,银行将保留从AIG获得的质押物,其中大部分是在政府9月份向AIG提供资金时获得的。银行还将以平均市场价一半的价格将这些CDO出售给上述新机构。参与的银行将按照CDO全价或票面价值获得补偿,条件是允许AIG解除此前发行的信贷违约掉期。

纽约固定收益投资公司ICP Capital的高级董事总经理卡洛斯•门德斯(Carlos Mendez)说,这对一些银行来说好比本垒打,他们从一家陷入困境的公司买了保险,但还是拿回了全部或大部分资金。

解除掉期合约会令AIG无需再为这类掉期提供更多质押物,为掉期提供质押也是AIG最近几个季度冲销数十亿美元的原因所在。这个计划相当于一家保险公司买了由自己提供火灾保险的一幢房子,这样就用不着保险单了。

知悉政府救助计划的人士称,本轮救助计划并非以损害美国纳税人和AIG为代价而让某个银行得到好处,美国纳税人和AIG最终会承担CDO的风险。不过,相关官员想给银行足够的刺激,鼓励它们出售这些证券,好让AIG解除掉期。

相关官员还想直接处理给AIG带来最严重财务危机的业务。纽约风险咨询机构Capital Market Risk Advisors的总裁莱尔(Leslie Rahl)说,CDO价值持续恶化意味着AIG每天都得拿出越来越多的质押品,这一点消耗着AIG的资源,可能会对其偿付能力造成威胁。

纽约联邦储备银行将提供最多300亿美元购买多部门CDO,AIG将出资50亿美元。

AIG还为所购买的首批50亿美元证券的损失承担着风险。如果这些资产的价值以后实现上涨或赢利,Fed和AIG将分享收益,其中大部分会落入纳税人手中。

Fed主导谈判,已联系了AIG的大多数交易对手。如果部分银行选择不解除掉期合约,那它们将继续承担AIG日后可能无法偿付债务的风险。但预计AIG在多部门CDO上的大多数掉期交易对手都会将手头的证券出售给新的机构,解除信用违约掉期(CDS)合约。

就算实现了这些交易,AIG的信用违约掉期投资组合依然存在大量风险,因为它仍持有为约3,000亿美元公司贷款等其他类型资产支持证券的保险合约。AIG截至11月5日为其掉期提供的400亿美元质押品绝大部分都是多部门CDO的掉期。

Serena Ng / Liam Pleven

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