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尾盘急挫 道指创下五年新低

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Late Drop Leaves Dow Down 200

2008年10月28日

Stocks slid Monday, including one of the swiftest, bloodiest late-day drops yet in a month that's been chock full of them.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended with a 203.18-point loss, off 2.4%, at 8175.77, in a disappointing end to a session that had included triple-digit intraday gains. The blue-chip measure slid about 423 points from its daily high, set around 1:45 p.m. Eastern, with more than a third of its decline coming in just the last 10 minutes of trading.

The session had been a back-and-forth one, with traders weighing new signs of global recession against promising signals for the U.S. financial sector and the housing market. But the more the market retreated from its highs, the more that the selling seemed to feed on itself, with some players apparently forced out of unprofitable positions to raise cash.

Recently, such activity has often produced an avalanche of selling. As hedge funds and other deep-pocket players unload stock to cover margin calls from their brokers, the market falls further, forcing others to sell. Additionally, many automated programs trading firms use are set to get end-of-day prices, which can create an even more frenzied bottleneck once traders start rushing for the exits.

'Somebody must have realized they had to make some sales here at the end of the day,' says Todd Clark, director of trading, Nollenberger Capital Partners. 'It's kind of unsettling.'

The S&P 500 was off 3.2% to 848.92. All its sectors ended in the red, led by basic materials, off 7.4%; energy, off 6.4%; and industrials, off 5.4%. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3% to 1505.90. The small-stock Russell 2000 fell 4.8% to 448.40.

The U.S. session got off to a sour start following a selloff in overseas shares driven by economic fears. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 12.7%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Average slid 6.4% to its worst level in 26 years. Investors fretted that the recent, rapid appreciation of the yen could harm Japan's export-dependent economy.

The declines in Asian equities prompted a move downward in European shares, though markets on the continent rebounded from their lows, with London's FTSE 100 Index posting a 0.7% decline after a much deeper loss.

U.S. investors recoiled from the declines overseas, but their mood improved after the mid-morning release of new data showing that new home sales, after hitting a 17-year low in August, rose 2.7% last month. The median new-home price fell 9.1% from a year earlier and inventories narrowed by 7.3%.


Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners, a trading and research firm in Greenwich, Conn., said the new data are promising. But the U.S. economy's problems are so deep-seated, including rising unemployment and weakening consumption, that he doesn't expect a full-blown economic rebound until late 2009.

In the meantime, corporate profits could remain weak, keeping the stock market from sustaining a rally. 'It's going to be a long, slow slog to normalcy,' Mr. Darda said.

That point was underscored late in the session as the market came unglued. But traders said the eleventh-hour plunge came amid relatively light trading volume -- a sign there could yet be more sellers waiting on the sidelines.

End-of-day activity was light compared to recent sessions, said Nick Kaupp, a trader with Source Trading in Stamford, Conn. 'It just felt like buyers walked away. We didn't see any big increase in selling -- it was actually quiet.'

Government officials around the world appear increasingly uncomfortable with the yen's rapid climb. The low-yielding Japanese currency had been used to fund corporate projects, speculative trades in an array of other assets, and other forms of risk-taking around the world.

Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven leading nations on Monday issued a statement warning investors against pushing up the yen too much. Market participants took that as a signal that officials could intervene in the markets to prevent the yen from making further gains. The statement said the recent 'excessive volatility' of the yen was a threat to the global economy.

Despite the statement, the yen continued to jump. The Japanese currency was recently stronger against both the euro and the dollar in recent trade. The dollar, which like the yen has recently been gaining against rival currencies, climbed against the euro and the British pound.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the dollar's value against a basket of six overseas denominations, rose 0.5%.

Treasury prices fell. The two-year note shed 3/32 to yield 1.553%. The benchmark 10-year note fell 4/32 to yield 3.693%.

Oil futures fell $1.45 to $63.22 a barrel, and gold futures climbed $12.60 to $741.70 per ounce in New York trading. The broad Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index was up 1.2%.

Peter A. McKay

尾盘急挫 道指创下五年新低

国股市周一下跌,尾盘再次出现了一个月来最为常见的急跌走势,而且跌势更为迅猛,更为惨烈。

Reuters
德国法兰克福的一名交易员

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘下跌203.18点,至8175.77点,跌幅2.4%,创2003年4月1日以来收盘新低。盘中道琼斯指数一度上涨上百点,但尾盘表现令人失望。该指数从美东时间下午1时45分创出的盘中高点下跌了约423点,其中约有三分之一的下跌点数发生在交易的最后10分钟。

周一股市一直上下拉锯,交易员在全球衰退的最新迹象和美国金融业及房地产市场出现的良好信号之间进行权衡。但市场越从高点回落,卖盘就变得越加汹涌。一些市场人士显然是忍痛割肉,以筹集现金。

最近,此类行为常常导致蜂拥而来的抛盘。随着对冲基金和其它资金雄厚的市场人士抛出股票,满足经纪商的追加保证金要求,市场进一步下跌,迫使其他人抛售。此外,交易机构使用的许多自动程序都会获取收盘时的价格,一旦交易员开始纷纷选择卖出,这会带来更严重的瓶颈。

Nollenberger Capital Partners的交易主管托德•克拉克(Todd Clark)说,一些人一定是认为他们需要在当天交易结束前抛出部分股票。这是一种不安的表现。

标准普尔500指数下跌3.2%,收于848.92点。所有分类指数全线下跌,基础材料类股领跌,跌幅高达7.4%;能源类股跌幅为6.4%;工业类股下跌5.4%。纳斯达克综合指数下跌3%,至1505.90点。小型股罗素2000指数下跌4.8%,至448.40点。

在海外股市因对经济的担忧大幅下挫之后,美国股市开盘走低。香港恒生指数暴跌12.7%,东京日经225指数下跌6.4%,收于26年来的最低水平。投资者担心近期日圆的大幅升值可能损害高度依赖出口的日本经济。

亚洲股市的下跌促使欧洲股市走低,但欧洲股市从低点出现反弹,伦敦富时100指数跌幅收窄,最终下跌了0.7%。

美国投资者对海外股市的下跌感到惊慌,但他们的情绪因上午发布预售屋数据而出现改善。在8月份创出17年来的低点后,9月份预售屋销量增长了2.7%。预售屋销售价格中值比上年同期下跌9.1%,预售屋存量减少了7.3%。

交易和研究公司MKM Partners的首席经济学家迈克尔•达达(Michael Darda)说,新的数据令人鼓舞。但鉴于美国的经济问题是如此深重,比如失业率不断上升、消费不断减弱等,因此达达预计2009年末之前美国经济不会全面反弹。

与此同时,企业利润可能依然疲弱,从而使股市无法维持住回升势头。达达说,股市要想恢复常态需要一个漫长而缓慢的过程。

这一点在周一尾盘时得到了彰显,这时股市摆脱了胶着状态。但交易员们说,股市在收盘前最后一刻大跌是因为市场交投相对清淡,这一迹象显示还可能有更多卖家在场边观望。

Source Trading的交易员尼克•考普(Nick Kaupp)说,与最近几个交易日相比,周一尾盘的活跃程度是比较轻的。他说,感觉上仅仅是买家们离场而去,卖盘数量并没有显著增加,市场交投实际上很清淡。

世界各国的政府官员们似乎对日圆的迅速升值日益感到不安。低利率的日圆以前一直在世界范围内被用于为企业发展项目提供资金、从事一系列其他资产的投机性交易,以及从事其他类型的高风险交易。

七大工业国的财政部长们周一发表声明,警告投资者勿将日圆汇率推至过高。市场参与人士认为,这一迹象表明政府官员们有可能入市干预,以阻止日圆汇率进一步上扬。这份声明说,近来日圆的“过分波动”是对全球经济的一个威胁。

尽管有上述声明发布,日圆汇率继续跃升。日圆兑欧元和美元汇率近来双双走高。与日圆一样,美元兑其他主要货币的汇率近来也不断攀升,兑欧元和英镑都有上扬。

衡量美元相对于一篮子六种货币价值的美元指数上升了0.5%。

美国国债价格下跌。两年期美国国债跌3/32,收益率为1.553%。基准10年期美国国债的价格跌4/32,收益率为 3.693%。

在纽约市场交易时段,原油期货价格下跌1.45美元,至每桶63.22美元,黄金期货上升12.60美元,至每盎司741.70美元。道琼斯-AIG大宗商品指数上涨1.2%。

Peter A. McKay

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